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| Pro-life demonstration in Washington, January 2018 Original Image from FamilyMan88 via WikiCommons |
There’s an argument among conservatives that the U.S. is a center-right country. That may be an accurate description of our elected legislatures—and increasingly of the judiciary they appoint—but less so of the electorate itself. Through a series of constitutional quirks that inhibit equal ideological representation, the U.S. has become a center-left country ruled by right-leaning officials.
For some issues, abortion among them, the electorate is far more liberal than the legislature and the judiciary, particularly once Amy Coney Barrett was elevated to the Supreme Court.
According to public opinion polling by Pew, 61% of American believe abortion should be legal in all or most cases, compared to 38% who believe the practice should be illegal. As one might expect, the majority of Democrats (82%) lean toward legalized abortion, while most Republicans (62%) disagree.
Looking at the issue through the lens of religion, the biggest push for reversing Roe v. Wade comes from White evangelicals and Catholics: 77% and 44%, respectively, believe abortion should be illegal in all or most cases.
I think it’s worth acknowledging here that I cannot in good conscience begrudge someone of their pro-life belief, though I may disagree with it. My views align with Caitlin Flanagan, who in a December 2019 article for The Atlantic spoke directly to the dishonestly of the abortion debate: “The truth is that the best argument on each side is a damn good one, and until you acknowledge that fact, you aren’t speaking or even thinking honestly about the issue.”
More troubling than the divide is that we’ve stopped debating. The above numbers on abortion support/opposition are from 2019. What’s stunning is how similar the 2019 data are to 1995, in which 60% were pro-choice and 38% pro-life.
Over a quarter century the needle hasn’t moved. In that time, the pro-life contingency—conservative Christians in particular—have largely given up on arguing for the virtue of their values and instead shifted to a strategy of foisting them upon others. The aim is no longer to convince, but to coerce.
The timeline tracks with the larger Republican trend of abandoning any meaningful legislative agenda. In the mid-1990s, Speaker Newt Gingrich embraced the political power of obstructionism. During his tenure as majority leader, Mitch McConnell perfected it.
Abortion has been key in allowing Republicans to maintain power while legislatively accomplishing very little. In effect, the Republican Party has made conservative Christians their useful idiots by playing to staunch pro-lifers’ voting patterns.
Pew polls voters on issues most important to them. In the run-up to the 2020 election, the economy and health care topped the list, with 79% and 68% of Americans describing these as top concerns. Abortion came in at No. 12, with just 40% of registered voters viewing the issue as “very important.”
However, abortion has outsized weight in the voting booth. According to Gallup, 30% of pro-life voters will only support a candidate who shares their views on abortion. So, for a sizable minority of the electorate, abortion isn’t an issue: It’s the only issue.
So long as Republican cater to single-issue, pro-life voters through legal challenges and judicial appointments, a substantial portion of their base is locked in. Republicans can then carry on enacting an agenda divorced from the concerns of not only the majority of the electorate, but likely from the majority of pro-lifers as well.
Consider again those top issues for American voters. The cornerstone of every Republican economic plan since Reagan has been tax cuts. Recently, it’s become their only economic plan. And it doesn’t work.
Health care has been met with similar vitriol. Republicans are obsessed with repealing Obama’s signature achievement, the increasingly popular Affordable Care Act, without offering a replacement plan.
Under Trump, the Republican foreign policy playbook has essentially been reverse-Obama as well. Kill the TPP. Withdraw from the Paris Climate Accord. Cancel the Iran Nuclear Deal. Ignore or downplay foreign election interference.
On key issues like climate change, immigration reform, gun safety and racial justice, the Republicans have offered few if any substantial plans. And in the midst of a pandemic crisis, they steered stimulus talks toward gridlock by refusing for months to take up the HEROES Act for debate and revision.
It's worth noting here that the abortion rate has been in steady decline since 1980, with increased access to contraception playing a major factor. The great irony is that blue states have led the way in expanding contraception, and by proxy reducing abortion numbers, only to see Republicans rewarded for the effort.
Of the single-issue, pro-life voters, I would ask, “What is abortion worth to you?” Based on their voting behavior, there’s only one honest answer: “Everything.”
Seems a mighty steep price.
