Tuesday, October 26, 2010

Reelecting Obama?

The folks over at the PEW Research Center published some interesting results concerning midterm opinions about reelecting sitting presidents.

There's a lot in the study to talk about, but this chart is what interests me the most:

PEW argues that, while a majority of individuals don't want to reelect Obama (only 47% favor a second term), Obama's numbers are much higher than Reagan's were during the same time in his presidency (only 36% of Americans favored a second term for him).

There seems to me, however, to be a pattern here that PEW is overlooking. Of the presidents listed -- Clinton, Bush, Reagan, and Carter -- only those with low midterm voter support actually succeeded in winning second terms. The election of a Republican Congress in '94 helped Clinton win in '96, and then for Reagan there was Mondale. Enough said.

If the pattern holds, perhaps a midterm Republican victory would lift Obama to a second term... that or if he runs against a political moron, Sarah Palin being the most obvious fit.