The current, Republican-led, U.S.
federal government is an unmitigated, bipartisan shitshow. And by bipartisan, I
don't mean both sides of the aisle are to blame. I mean that from an objective
viewpoint -- or at least as objective as one can muster -- we're staring at a
dumpster fire here, one that's going to burn for at least two years, and
possibly eight.
The
most obvious offender is President Donald Trump. My personal list of complaints
against Trump is longer than...well, it's long. But my focus here isn't on his
effort to undercut liberal policies: his failing travel ban, his undermining of
progress on climate change (which is a partisan issue for
some reason), his push for financial deregulation, or his
proposed budget cuts to vital programs in the social safety
net. Idiotic as I believe these ideas are, I recognize that to some degree
they're simply an extreme version of normal arguments between Republicans and
Democrats over ideological priorities.
But much of Trump's failings have
nothing to do with partisan issues. First, let's look at Russia. We know that
the Russians attempted to influence our 2016
presidential election -- and in favor of Trump. They even attempted to tamper with voting machines. We know Trump officials have connections to Russia in various capacities. It's unclear if
Trump or his aides colluded with Russia in any way, but there are concerns
about conflicts of interest and blackmail, and Trump's reluctance to release
his tax returns (a custom dating back to the 1970s) only
raises suspicions.
Those suspicions were magnified over Trump's decision to fire FBI Director James Comey, a decision Trump admits was influenced by Comey's continued Russian probe. The day after Comey's firing, Trump held an oval office meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Ambassador Sergey Kislyak, where he admitted that Comey's departure relieved a great deal of pressure; then he went on to leak information gathered by Israeli intelligence to the Russians at that same meeting, just for good measure.
Last week, we learned from Comey's testimony that he felt pressured into a patronage relationship with Trump, prompting Comey to record his encounters with the president and to subsequently leak those memos in the hopes of forcing the appointment of a special prosecutor. Yesterday, we found out Trump is considering dismissing that same special prosecutor.
Trump's failures extend far beyond the Russia mess. Trump has yet to fill 553 key, Senate-confirmable positions; what's more, he hasn't even put forth a nominee for 89 percent of those openings.
This shortfall in staff might partially explain the hollowness of his economic policy. Writing for the the Atlantic, Derek Thompson summarized Trump's economic policy well: "There is no policy." Virtually everything Trump has done on this front has been all sizzle, no steak. Last week's infrastructure signing ceremony was simply Trump sending a memo to Congress requesting they act. His proposed tax plan is less than a page long and scant on detail. His budget only balances if the GDP growth doubles the forecast -- and if you double-count that growth, as his budget folks did, resulting in a $2 trillion math error.
Additionally, in his brief tenure, Trump has show complete disregard for ethics. Hiring Ivanka Trump and Jared Kusher ignores antinepotism norms, and potentially laws. He's also requested an unprecedented number of ethics waivers allowing former lobbyists to oversee the very industry sectors for which they lobbied (so much for draining the swamp). Recently, Maryland and D.C. have filed a lawsuit against Trump alleging that he has used his position rather egregiously for his own financial gain.
The Republican Congress, which is meant to check the president's power, has tripped over itself in rather pathetic attempts to defend Trump. Speaker Paul Ryan's excuse: "The president's new at this." Really?
Still, Sen. Lindsey Graham's backhand-compliment defense is perhaps the most succinct summation of the Trump White House: "He doesn't believe he did anything wrong with the Russians, and I tend to believe him. He can't collude with his own government. Why do you think he's colluding with the Russians?"
In attempting to stand by Trump, the Republican Party leadership has in actuality undermined him. When Trump's best defense is that he's either to inexperienced or dimwitted to be guilty, it raises the question of whether he's to inexperienced or dimwitted to be president.
But he is president. And he will continue to be. And it's because voters are often stupid and always tribal.
This morning, I
read an op-ed in The New York Times about the Senate's handling of the
Trumpcare bill. Essentially, it looks like Mitch McConnell and the Republican
leadership will attempt to ram something through by early July. The leadership
is constructing the bill in secret, with no scheduled hearings or attempts to
compromise with Democrats -- a particularly infuriating move seeing as that was
their main complaint against Obamacare. (And a false one at that. Obamacare was
debated in open sessions for a year, with several Republican
amendments added, effectively killing the public option, among other
proposals.)
Here’s how the article concludes:
Republican leaders seem to think they will gain a tactical legislative advantage if they can negotiate a deal behind the scenes and then suddenly spring it on the full Senate. Those gains will quickly evaporate when voters learn what they have done.
The NYT editorial
board seems to believe voters will revolt against policies that negatively
affect them and support politicians who act to their practical benefit. In my
estimation, this is a rather naive view, and the 2010
midterms bear this out.
President Obama signed the Affordable Care Act into law in March 2010. Though imperfect, it was a vast improvement over the existing system: more Americans are insured, premiums have stabilized, and job growth hasn't suffered. In part, that may account for steady increases in support for the ACA since it's passage (54 percent of Americans approve of the ACA, while only 32 percent approve of the proposed replacement).
What did the Democrats get for those efforts? They lost six
governorships, six Senate seats, and 63 seats in the House.
The lesson? Perception is more powerful than the reality and
tribalism is more powerful than common sense. Obamacare wasn't a government
takeover of health care, nor was there ever any attempt to institute death
panels to kill your grandmother. But that's the false narrative that confused
and misinformed voters relied on to oust the Democrats from power.
The ideological spin of the narrative of events was more
crucial than the practical results of the events themselves -- and it will be
again.
Obamacare was and is a private sector reform passed through
bipartisan negotiation. In many ways it's more Republican than Democratic. But Republicans
couldn't support it because Obama did it. American politics now operate on
one rule above all others: Better
to deal a defeat to the American public than allow a victory for the other team.
And the fragmented media environment that offers each of us
our ideal augmented reality makes it possible to reframe each blow to the
average American as somehow the other guy's fault. In reality, it's our own.
At the outset of this post, I feel I laid out a fair account
of the facts in the case against Trump's general competency and the case for
his possibly illegal behavior. But Trump is and will likely remain insulated
from any meaningful consequences up to and including impeachment. To impeach a president, a majority vote in the
House is required. Then the president is tried in the Senate, and removed only
if a two-thirds majority elects to do so. Currently, to remove Trump would
require 22 House and 19 Senate Republicans to vote in favor, assuming Democrats
and Independents all do. Not going to happen.
Why?
Trump's approval rating. Yes, Trump's is historically low. According to Gallup, as of June 11, 2017, he sat at
a meager 37 percent. But if you look deeper, you'll notice an unprecedented
partisan gap: only 8 percent of Democrats approve of Trump, but 83 percent of
Republicans back him. So for senators in conservative states and
representatives in conservative districts who are routinely elected without
having to win over many -- if any -- Democrats, there's no incentive to move on
Trump, especially considering Democratic turnout in midterm elections is
abysmally low. That could change, but if there's little threat
of losing one's seat, there's little to gain in checking Trump.
Since
Trump's election, I've heard many of my fellow liberals claim he's not their
president. Yes he is. And it's important to remember that he is. It reminds us
of the agency we have as citizens and voters in a representative republic and
the responsibility we have to uphold its values.
But
I'm not naive. I know it's Team R vs. Team D. I'm firmly on the latter side
here, so it's easy for me to throw stones at our president. It's not fun to
admit when your guy is wrong, but sometimes he is. Obama was wrong on many
occasions, from the strengthening of the surveillance state, to the expansion
of drone use without oversight, to his noncommittal stance on Syria, to his lie
that you could keep your plan via the ACA (though there's a lot of nuance on
last one).
Now
we're at a point where Team R needs to step up. Trump is a failed experiment on
what happens when a novice is drafted to the big leagues. He's not capable
enough to do the job, nor intellectually curious enough to ever become capable.
He's placing himself above the law, or at least positioning himself outside it.
His willingness to ignore every democratic norm, to violate any principle, and
to lie and con for his own personal gain are affronts to public service in its
most basic terms.
These
should be egregious offenses in the eyes of all Americans, not just Team D. In
fact, I know they are, but we've become too tribal to face an obvious and
objective threat. And for the folks on Team R, what do you gain for this
erosion of the American soul? A bag of empty promises and a cheap red hat, probably
made in China. So much winning.